The disappearing subsidy

Bitcoin's security is ~99% funded by a block subsidy that is designed to fall to zero.

99.3%

of miner reward is the subsidy — fees are the rest

Today fees are only ~0.65% of what miners earn. When the subsidy reaches ~0 around 2140, fees alone must pay for all of Bitcoin's security.

Next halving — subsidy cut in half

—yrs

— blocks to the next 210,000 boundary

Subsidy → ~0

~114yrs

~2140 · 32 more halvings until the reward rounds to zero

Block subsidy now

3.125 BTC

≈ $187,372 / block

Avg fees / block

0.0205 BTC

~0.65% of the reward

Block height

955,573

mempool.space tip

The doubling test 1.83× — SHORT OF 2×

For the security budget to hold in dollar terms while the subsidy halves, the price must roughly double every cycle. Last cycle it did (3.5×). This cycle, so far, it has not.

Last cycle top

$69,044

2× required

$138,088

This cycle high

$126,080

The thesis’s own falsifiable test, on the record: the high to date, $126,080 (Oct 6, 2025), against the $138,088 the test required — 8.7% short. A new cycle high re-runs the test; every halving re-arms it. Not a prediction, no price targets — a scoreboard. Figures verified · 2026-07-17 · CoinGecko — verify independently.

Connecting…

One proposed market-funded supplement — a “second subsidy” decoded from each block's own data and credited to the coinbase — is currently ~53% adopted by pools. It is one option, not a fix, and carries its own risks. Read the mechanism →